MSU's Bowl Chances: Two Weeks Out

We'll start this week by outlining the rules. Slight update from the last post: The Champs Sports Bowl picks before the Alamo Bowl this year. Also, if a 6-6 team gets picked before a 7-5 team, the 7-5 team must have an affiliated bowl to land in. With that, let's get to it.

To me, the Big Ten splits into three levels at this point. Iowa has one loss, Ohio State, Penn State and Wisconsin have two. Iowa is @ Ohio State this weekend, and the winner of that will almost certainly go to the Rose Bowl. Realistically, the loser probably isn't going to get picked for the BCS. Penn State closes home to Indiana and @ MSU and if the Nittany Lions win both then they and their massive fan base will have an in at a second BCS bid. Should TCU lose to Utah, but especially if Boise State loses to Idaho, that shot would become almost automatic.

However, for these purposes, I'm assuming that Iowa/OSU gets to the Rose Bowl and that Penn State doesn't get picked as an at large. Three reasons: I think the MSU game may actually go our way. I also think that it would be next to impossible to pass on an undefeated Boise or TCU. Finally, Oregon and Arizona have the inside track on winning the Pac 10 and a two-loss USC would get picked ahead of a two-loss Penn State.

Given that, I've got Penn State in the Capital One Bowl, the loser of Iowa @ OSU (the guess here is Iowa) in the Outback Bowl and Wisconsin in the Champs Sports Bowl.

That leaves the second tier schools: MSU, Minnesota, Northwestern and Michigan. Purdue, Illinois and Indiana can only finish 6-6 at best, and none would get picked ahead of the four second-tier schools.

Minnesota is an almost near-mortal lock to finish 6-6. Their next game is against South Dakota State, a good FCS school, but an FCS school nevertheless. Their final game is @ Iowa. 'Nuff said.

Northwestern and MSU both have a game they'll be favored in followed by a game they'll be picked to lose, though both are winnable or loseable. For NW, it's @ Illinois then home to Wisconsin. For MSU, it's @ Purdue then home to Penn State.

Michigan has by far the toughest road to a bowl, finishing up @ Wisconsin then home to Ohio State.

So who gets in? Well, we'll start by assuming that Minn., NW and MSU all finish up at 6-6. I simply don't think Michigan has another win left in them, and will finish 5-7. Their chance to get bowl eligible died when they let Purdue come back from two touchdowns last weekend.

Minnesota beat both Northwestern and Michigan State, but that doesn't matter at all compared to who will fill up the Alamo Bowl best. Frankly, that's probably Michigan State. Add that to the fact that MSU traveled very well in 2003 to the Alamo Bowl, and you'll see MSU headed to Texas once again.

That leaves Minnesota and Northwestern for the Insight Bowl, and conventional wisdom says Northwestern goes to the Insight Bowl. I wouldn't pick that way, but I think that's the read people much closer to the situation are getting, so I'll defer to their wisdom. That leaves Minnesota with a trip to Detroit and the Little Caesars Bowl.

Should Penn State get picked to go to a BCS bowl, who would go to Detroit? Well, another team would have to qualify, and of the other three schools, Purdue has the easiest road. They finish home to MSU and @ Indiana, and I think it would be easier for Purdue to win both than for Michigan to beat either Wisconsin away or Ohio State at home. Indiana has to win @ Penn State before that Purdue clash, and Indiana has never beaten Penn State, ever. Illinois closes out with winnable home games against Northwestern and Fresno State sandwiching a game they won't win - @ Big East leader Cincinnati.

With two games to play, the pick is MSU to the Alamo Bowl.

An Open Letter to Mike Ilitch

Dear Mr. Ilitch,

I read today in the Detroit Free Press that your iconic firm, Little Caesars, is in talks to purchase the naming rights to the Motor City Bowl, now that GM has pulled out of sponsoring the annual Boxing Day bowl game.

According to Motor City Bowl CEO George Perles, your pizza chain is being offered not just an add-on name (like the Little Caesars Motor City Bowl), but a full-scale rebranding. Perles suggested the "Little Caesars Pizza Pizza Bowl," though it could easily be the Little Caesars Bowl or Little Caesars Hot n' Ready Bowl.

Mike, you're an icon in Detroit. You own not only one of the most recognizable Michigan brands in the world, but the greatest hockey franchise of all time - the Detroit Red Wings - and the up-and-coming Detroit Tigers. So why not use this time to show us all just how much of a Detroit guy you are?

Mr. Ilitch, I'm asking you to keep the "Motor City" name. Sure, tack on "Little Caesars" if you want, no one would have an issue with that. But other bowls have seen identity problems with re-branding their games, specifically that casual fans don't know which ones they are.

It's a simple case of brand identity - something I hardly need to explain to Mr. "Pizza, Pizza." You can't really have a discussion about the Capital One Bowl without mentioning that it used to be the Citrus Bowl. Ditto the Chick-fil-A Bowl, formerly the Peach Bowl.

We all know that Perles has dreams of moving the bowl up the Big Ten's postseason lineup - so that a Big Ten squad will always come to Detroit. The dream has always been to get Michigan State or Michigan in the game. Surely, sir, you wouldn't want to damage what prestige the bowl has worked so hard to earn by destroying its brand identity, would you?

Mr. Ilitch, you're a Detroit man, through and through. You're the guy who, when GM decided not to re-up its sponsorship of the center field fountains at Comerica Park, decided to allow the Big Three to advertise there all year long for free. You have invested your fortune in Detroit enterprises, and you knows how big this game can be for the city - and your wife's MotorCity Casino.

So Mike, given all that, do us a favor. Don't kill the name. Add Little Caesars to the moniker, but please keep the Motor City in the Motor City Bowl.

Are You Ready for Some Football?

Football season starts today!

Well, technically it's called Spring Football, but it is still an important time for the MSU Football program. The first practices since the season ended at the Capitol One Bowl begin today. According to the released schedule, the team will play this week in shorts and limited pads and will be in full pads at the start of next week.

There are several positions battles of interest, notably the battle for QB between Keith Nichol and Kirk Cousins. The fight to replace RB Javon Ringer may be just as important, but most likely will not be decided at all in spring ball, as two of the top contenders for the position are incoming freshmen who will not arrive on campus until fall.

Keep an eye on the newcomers who are already enrolled and should participate: DE Corey Freeman, WR Donald Spencer, and WR/CB Patrick White, and transfer TE Brian Linthicum.

MSU's Spring Football game is April 25th at 1:30 p.m. in Spartan Stadium.