We'll start this week by outlining the rules. Slight update from the last post: The Champs Sports Bowl picks before the Alamo Bowl this year. Also, if a 6-6 team gets picked before a 7-5 team, the 7-5 team must have an affiliated bowl to land in. With that, let's get to it.
To me, the Big Ten splits into three levels at this point. Iowa has one loss, Ohio State, Penn State and Wisconsin have two. Iowa is @ Ohio State this weekend, and the winner of that will almost certainly go to the Rose Bowl. Realistically, the loser probably isn't going to get picked for the BCS. Penn State closes home to Indiana and @ MSU and if the Nittany Lions win both then they and their massive fan base will have an in at a second BCS bid. Should TCU lose to Utah, but especially if Boise State loses to Idaho, that shot would become almost automatic.
However, for these purposes, I'm assuming that Iowa/OSU gets to the Rose Bowl and that Penn State doesn't get picked as an at large. Three reasons: I think the MSU game may actually go our way. I also think that it would be next to impossible to pass on an undefeated Boise or TCU. Finally, Oregon and Arizona have the inside track on winning the Pac 10 and a two-loss USC would get picked ahead of a two-loss Penn State.
Given that, I've got Penn State in the Capital One Bowl, the loser of Iowa @ OSU (the guess here is Iowa) in the Outback Bowl and Wisconsin in the Champs Sports Bowl.
That leaves the second tier schools: MSU, Minnesota, Northwestern and Michigan. Purdue, Illinois and Indiana can only finish 6-6 at best, and none would get picked ahead of the four second-tier schools.
Minnesota is an almost near-mortal lock to finish 6-6. Their next game is against South Dakota State, a good FCS school, but an FCS school nevertheless. Their final game is @ Iowa. 'Nuff said.
Northwestern and MSU both have a game they'll be favored in followed by a game they'll be picked to lose, though both are winnable or loseable. For NW, it's @ Illinois then home to Wisconsin. For MSU, it's @ Purdue then home to Penn State.
Michigan has by far the toughest road to a bowl, finishing up @ Wisconsin then home to Ohio State.
So who gets in? Well, we'll start by assuming that Minn., NW and MSU all finish up at 6-6. I simply don't think Michigan has another win left in them, and will finish 5-7. Their chance to get bowl eligible died when they let Purdue come back from two touchdowns last weekend.
Minnesota beat both Northwestern and Michigan State, but that doesn't matter at all compared to who will fill up the Alamo Bowl best. Frankly, that's probably Michigan State. Add that to the fact that MSU traveled very well in 2003 to the Alamo Bowl, and you'll see MSU headed to Texas once again.
That leaves Minnesota and Northwestern for the Insight Bowl, and conventional wisdom says Northwestern goes to the Insight Bowl. I wouldn't pick that way, but I think that's the read people much closer to the situation are getting, so I'll defer to their wisdom. That leaves Minnesota with a trip to Detroit and the Little Caesars Bowl.
Should Penn State get picked to go to a BCS bowl, who would go to Detroit? Well, another team would have to qualify, and of the other three schools, Purdue has the easiest road. They finish home to MSU and @ Indiana, and I think it would be easier for Purdue to win both than for Michigan to beat either Wisconsin away or Ohio State at home. Indiana has to win @ Penn State before that Purdue clash, and Indiana has never beaten Penn State, ever. Illinois closes out with winnable home games against Northwestern and Fresno State sandwiching a game they won't win - @ Big East leader Cincinnati.
With two games to play, the pick is MSU to the Alamo Bowl.
Showing posts with label Champs Sports Bowl. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Champs Sports Bowl. Show all posts
Friday, November 13, 2009
Monday, November 2, 2009
MSU's Bowl Chances: Three Weeks Out
Michigan State is sitting at 4-5 with three games to go, the upcoming one being against 17-point-underdog Western Michigan. Following that are games away to Purdue (3-6 overall) and the final at home to #11 Penn State (8-1).
MSU needs to win two games to become bowl eligible and three to guarantee a bowl bid. Assuming that happens, what bowl is MSU likely to make? Well, let's start with the position MSU might have in the pecking order.
The top three, in some order, are almost certainly Iowa, Penn State and Ohio State. Wisconsin, at 6-2, is riding high and will likely claim the fourth spot. That leaves us on the next tier with Minnesota, Northwestern and Michigan, all at 5-4, while MSU and Indiana sit at 4-5. For argument's sake, since Indiana's remaining schedule is @ Wisconsin, @ Penn State and home to Purdue, I'm going to guess that IU won't win two games, thus making them ineligible.
That's eight teams for seven bowl games. Minnesota's remaining schedule (vs. Illinois, vs. South Dakota State, @ Iowa) is favorable, while Michigan and Northwestern are even money to, like MSU, finish 6-6.
So let's allocate the bowl games, for the moment assuming that the Big Ten sends both Iowa and Penn State to BCS bowls. The Capital One and Outback, the other two New Year's bowls select Ohio State and Wisconsin, respectively, while Minnesota goes to the Alamo Bowl. By rule, a 7-5 team must get picked over a 6-6 squad, so the fact that Minnesota is a terrible traveling team won't hurt them in this scenario.
The Champs Sports Bowl gets to choose next, between MSU, Michigan and Northwestern. MSU beat both squads, but that doesn't matter nearly as much as which school will travel best. Michigan does travel better than MSU, however we've done well two years in a row bringing fans to Orlando. Still, Michigan hasn't gone bowling in a year, so there's a little more pent-up demand on their end.
Whoever doesn't get picked is likely the favorite to go to the Insight Bowl in Tempe, Ariz., with Northwestern headed to the Little Caesars Pizza Bowl in Detroit.
Right now, the most likely scenario would see Michigan State head to the Insight Bowl. That prediction assumes we'll win two of the next three games, likely against Western Michigan and @ Purdue.
Granted that it's not the destination we were all hoping for in August, but I could do with a New Year's Eve in Arizona, couldn't you?
MSU needs to win two games to become bowl eligible and three to guarantee a bowl bid. Assuming that happens, what bowl is MSU likely to make? Well, let's start with the position MSU might have in the pecking order.
The top three, in some order, are almost certainly Iowa, Penn State and Ohio State. Wisconsin, at 6-2, is riding high and will likely claim the fourth spot. That leaves us on the next tier with Minnesota, Northwestern and Michigan, all at 5-4, while MSU and Indiana sit at 4-5. For argument's sake, since Indiana's remaining schedule is @ Wisconsin, @ Penn State and home to Purdue, I'm going to guess that IU won't win two games, thus making them ineligible.
That's eight teams for seven bowl games. Minnesota's remaining schedule (vs. Illinois, vs. South Dakota State, @ Iowa) is favorable, while Michigan and Northwestern are even money to, like MSU, finish 6-6.
So let's allocate the bowl games, for the moment assuming that the Big Ten sends both Iowa and Penn State to BCS bowls. The Capital One and Outback, the other two New Year's bowls select Ohio State and Wisconsin, respectively, while Minnesota goes to the Alamo Bowl. By rule, a 7-5 team must get picked over a 6-6 squad, so the fact that Minnesota is a terrible traveling team won't hurt them in this scenario.
The Champs Sports Bowl gets to choose next, between MSU, Michigan and Northwestern. MSU beat both squads, but that doesn't matter nearly as much as which school will travel best. Michigan does travel better than MSU, however we've done well two years in a row bringing fans to Orlando. Still, Michigan hasn't gone bowling in a year, so there's a little more pent-up demand on their end.
Whoever doesn't get picked is likely the favorite to go to the Insight Bowl in Tempe, Ariz., with Northwestern headed to the Little Caesars Pizza Bowl in Detroit.
Right now, the most likely scenario would see Michigan State head to the Insight Bowl. That prediction assumes we'll win two of the next three games, likely against Western Michigan and @ Purdue.
Granted that it's not the destination we were all hoping for in August, but I could do with a New Year's Eve in Arizona, couldn't you?
Tuesday, October 13, 2009
New Bowl Lineup Not Good News for Fans
The new bowl lineups for the Big Ten for 2010-2014 have been reported, and the first insta-analysis is that they might be better for the Big Ten teams on the field. However, if the conference was looking for a better fan experience, or for more fans to travel for that matter, then I think they missed the mark.
The upshot of the changes are thus: The Alamo Bowl and Champs Sports Bowl depart, replaced by the Gator Bowl in Jacksonville, the Texas Bowl in Houston and a new game in Dallas as a sort-of sub-Cotton Bowl (like the Champs Sports is a sub-Citrus/Capital One Bowl). All other tie-ins would remain.
For those scoring at home, that's eight guaranteed slots for an 11-team conference. But since the bowl system is all about fan experience and subsequent cash flow from said fans to the bowls and participating schools, it's worth taking a look at what we're giving up and what we're getting.
The Alamo Bowl was always an underrated venue, primarily because the experience of attending the game was so amazing. San Antonio rolled out the red carpet to traveling fans and media, all of whom spent considerable amounts of time on the city's famed RiverWalk. Great margaritas, great Mexican food, great weather, great all around. Oh, and it's consistently one of the most-watched bowl games all year.
The Champs Sports Bowl was cool for two reasons. One, it got you to Orlando between Christmas and New Years. Two, because it was tied in with the Capital One Bowl, attending fans got to experience a big bowl atmosphere with a smaller-tiered game.
Of the new ones, the Gator Bowl is the only one I'm really excited for. It'll be a New Year's game in Florida, which is nice, but there's a significant downside - it's in Jacksonville. All in all, that's a nice enough town, but is it really a major tourist destination? Not really. Would you ever choose to vacation there over other Florida cities like Miami, Orlando, Tampa, Daytona, Ft. Lauderdale or Key West? Probably not.
The jury is out on the two Texas bowls for me. The destinations are good - Houston and Dallas - but I don't know how many fans are going to want to head to Dallas to watch their team play some random C-USA team. For me, I'd rather MSU go to Detroit and play a good MAC team - it's cheaper for everyone involved.
The biggest problem is the elevation of the Insight Bowl from 6th in the pecking order to 4th or 5th. That's a terrible idea. Some Big Ten schools might be big in Phoenix/Tempe - Ohio State for example - but not many are, and Michigan State surely isn't. Remember two years ago when MSU almost went to that bowl game (but we were saved by the Champs Sports and the Insight's daft idea to take Indiana over anyone else)? The entire Spartan fan base basically said they'd go to Orlando or Detroit, but not Phoenix. That should tell you something.
Now, if these new bowls can provide the same fan experience as the Alamo or Champs Sports bowls, I'll revisit this posting. For now, however, I'll keep up hope that MSU qualifies top three in the Big Ten, so Spartan fans don't have to be the guinea pigs for the new bowl affiliations.
The upshot of the changes are thus: The Alamo Bowl and Champs Sports Bowl depart, replaced by the Gator Bowl in Jacksonville, the Texas Bowl in Houston and a new game in Dallas as a sort-of sub-Cotton Bowl (like the Champs Sports is a sub-Citrus/Capital One Bowl). All other tie-ins would remain.
For those scoring at home, that's eight guaranteed slots for an 11-team conference. But since the bowl system is all about fan experience and subsequent cash flow from said fans to the bowls and participating schools, it's worth taking a look at what we're giving up and what we're getting.
The Alamo Bowl was always an underrated venue, primarily because the experience of attending the game was so amazing. San Antonio rolled out the red carpet to traveling fans and media, all of whom spent considerable amounts of time on the city's famed RiverWalk. Great margaritas, great Mexican food, great weather, great all around. Oh, and it's consistently one of the most-watched bowl games all year.
The Champs Sports Bowl was cool for two reasons. One, it got you to Orlando between Christmas and New Years. Two, because it was tied in with the Capital One Bowl, attending fans got to experience a big bowl atmosphere with a smaller-tiered game.
Of the new ones, the Gator Bowl is the only one I'm really excited for. It'll be a New Year's game in Florida, which is nice, but there's a significant downside - it's in Jacksonville. All in all, that's a nice enough town, but is it really a major tourist destination? Not really. Would you ever choose to vacation there over other Florida cities like Miami, Orlando, Tampa, Daytona, Ft. Lauderdale or Key West? Probably not.
The jury is out on the two Texas bowls for me. The destinations are good - Houston and Dallas - but I don't know how many fans are going to want to head to Dallas to watch their team play some random C-USA team. For me, I'd rather MSU go to Detroit and play a good MAC team - it's cheaper for everyone involved.
The biggest problem is the elevation of the Insight Bowl from 6th in the pecking order to 4th or 5th. That's a terrible idea. Some Big Ten schools might be big in Phoenix/Tempe - Ohio State for example - but not many are, and Michigan State surely isn't. Remember two years ago when MSU almost went to that bowl game (but we were saved by the Champs Sports and the Insight's daft idea to take Indiana over anyone else)? The entire Spartan fan base basically said they'd go to Orlando or Detroit, but not Phoenix. That should tell you something.
Now, if these new bowls can provide the same fan experience as the Alamo or Champs Sports bowls, I'll revisit this posting. For now, however, I'll keep up hope that MSU qualifies top three in the Big Ten, so Spartan fans don't have to be the guinea pigs for the new bowl affiliations.
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