I'll be at the Motor City Pizza Pizza Bowl, and I hope MSU is too...

If you want to find me on Dec. 26th, my friends know to just look somewhere in downtown Detroit. I've enjoyed the Motor City Bowl almost every year, and not for the stellar matchup on the field. It has just been an event, a gathering of my friends, and often the last live football game I see each year. Plus it's cheap.

On years where there is a chance that a Big Ten team will be in it, I often buy my tickets several weeks before the end of the season, forking over the higher ticket money for some pretty good seats. This season you'll see me sitting on the 40 yard line. And hopefully, I'll be cheering on Michigan State.

Why would I want MSU to go to this game this year? First and foremost, my personal selfish reasons: It would save me a lot of money, and I already have great seats! It's hard to argue with that, right? If I have tickets either way, I would be pretty weird to be rooting for Middle Tennessee Atlantic Gulf Academy against Central Michigan. But my rational makes sense for a lot of people: It's close and it would save money.

First, lets look at the general fan perspective. There is no possible bowl location this year where more MSU fans could cheer on their team. Look at the Final Four as an example. Detroit turned green that weekend, and there were three other teams supposedly playing too. Sure, the importance of the Motor City Bowl isn't on par with the Final Four, but if MSU can sell fans 74,000 tickets to see them play Montana State in East Lansing, they should be able to sell 50,000 tickets to play someone better in Detroit. Where travel, hotel, tickets, food, other attractions and souvenirs for either the Alamo Bowl or the Insight Bowl would place a trip out of price range for many Michigan families, a day trip to Detroit with dinner at the Coney Island after the game is not much more than going to the movies on a Friday night.

Plus, if you are a hard core State of Michigan sports fan, you could decide to catch MSU in the noon game, and then either the home Pistons or home Red Wings game that night. You'll probably not even see those on TV if you traveled down to Texas or Arizona. The City of Detroit could use the extra tax dollars, and if we want a Motor City Bowl to be around much longer, at some point it would be nice if it actually sold out, or even came close. And the only way that is likely to happen is with Michigan State, Michigan, or perhaps Notre Dame in attendance. Weren't all of those feel good stories on TV about how great it was for Detroit that MSU was in the Final Four nice? You could get your DVR ready for a whole bunch more of those!

Now, lets look at a school perspective. Even before this week's embarrassing "excuse me for a minute Mom while I run across the street and kick the crap out of some short guy" episode, Detroit was not a bad option. Financially speaking, MSU spends a lot of money to play in a bowl. Sure, I'll buy your argument that MSU makes a lot more money, and the bowls pay a lot of expenses. Plus money goes to the Big Ten and is then split between the teams to help everyone. But even with a smaller overall payout to MSU coming from the Detroit game than another possible game, MSU could choose to dramatically save money on their expenses. Just look at all of the people we travel: Football team and staff, athletic department staff, administrators and Board of Trustees, University Relations, SAF (Sparty), Spartan Marching Band, cheerleaders, Spartan Radio, high level donors, Alumni Association staff. We could treat a trip to Detroit like any other bowl game, where many of them get sent days early and put up in hotels, many receiving per diem for every meal. But if MSU plays in Detroit, we wouldn't HAVE to. Many of these people wouldn't need a hotel at all, and if they did it may only be for one night, not three or more. You can forget the cost of the chartered airline plus the additional airfare for all of the people who are not on the chartered flight, plus the cost of the semi trucks of equipment driving across the country (Yeah, we truck the helmets and pads and tubas).

There is a fair argument for the element of prestige. Playing in Detroit is simply not as cool as playing in Texas or Arizona. It may not look as appealing to recruits, to fans hoping for that trip to warm weather, or to the high school student whose looking for a school to apply for college (and is not as interested in how great the Math department is). But I'll make this argument for prestige: It is more prestigious to sell out your ticket allotment and then another 30,000 tickets than to leave half your section empty. It is more prestigious to compete and win a game than to get blown out by 50 against Oklahoma or Texas Tech. It is more prestigious to have your team take the field to thunderous cheers than the boos from the sea of Orange or Red that would far out-number those wearing green. And it is more prestigious to look at this team's goals from the beginning of the season, and be able to say "accomplished." A big goal this season was to WIN a bowl game, not just go. No matter where MSU goes, they will have gone to three straight bowl games, something that has not been done in a long time. That's pretty prestigious too.

So even though I have been hoping for their destination to be Detroit for a while, my mind was firmly made up this week after "the incident." The effect on fan enthusiasm for traveling to a bowl could simply be devastating. If this had happened a few weeks earlier, or a week later, it may not have mattered as much. But the site is announced Sunday, and it came out this week. The timing simply could not be worse for trying to excite fans and trying to sell tickets.

The scenario I fear is that MSU will draw the Alamo Bowl and have to play Oklahoma. For the third straight year, MSU would play the top QB prospect going into the NFL Draft. Winning that game would be difficult at best, and with 6+ starters possibly out for the bowl, it would take darn near a miracle. Knowing this, a large number of fans that may have attended the game now stay home, and our reputation as a school that travels well is hurt badly. That hurts our future bowl selections. And losing the game badly doesn't impress recruits or anyone else. So we would spend a lot more money to go and hurt our recruiting, our future bowl selection chances, and our pride.

Now picture what I've been picturing for the last month: 65,000 screaming fans in green, a bowl victory, family and friends all around, tailgating with hot chocolate and snow football, and an athletic department that can save enough money on the trip to avoid having to make cuts to Volleyball and Wrestling. Recruits with smiles on their faces, and TV stories about how this MSU team has adopted the City of Detroit, lifting it from the ashes one more time, instead of TV stories about our how we didn't travel half our team cause they are thugs.

Either way, I'll be at the Motor City Bowl on December 26th. I just hope MSU is too.

Suspensions Could Cost MSU in Bowl Hunt

A fight between Michigan State football players and members of a fraternity, coupled with the dismissal of two players and indefinite suspension of eight more, will almost certainly play into the decision process over where MSU goes bowling.

The only question is how much.

Alamo Bowl spokesman Rick Hill said in an interview here last week that the makeup of the team on gameday is a factor in the selection. His remarks came in the context of Minnesota losing all-everything WR Eric Decker for the season. Well, now MSU has lost starters Mark Dell, B.J. Cunningham, Chris L. Rucker and a host of backups. Actually, we didn't lose them, per se, they took themselves out by being morons last week. But I digress.

Ask yourself, who is the better matchup for a Big 12 team with a prolific offense like Oklahoma or Texas Tech? Minnesota, without Decker, or MSU, without Dell, Cunningham and Rucker? Not such an easy question.

And then there's the question of fan enthusiasm. Before this incident, I would have bet serious cash that MSU would out-travel Minnesota. Now? Who knows. San Antonio didn't get any less cool as a destination, but how many alums will pay to see a disappointing team going through the worst scandal since the days of Damon Dowdell and Eric Knott?

Will it all matter? Yes. Will it be enough to keep us from San Antonio? That remains to be seen.

MSU's Bowl Chances: Final Draft

By Sunday evening we'll know where Michigan State is going bowling. It could be San Antonio, it could be Phoenix or, if unlikely events converge, it could be Detroit.

Currently, there are just two big questions remaining. First, will the Big Ten get two teams in the BCS? If they do, then the Big Ten won't have enough teams to send one to the Little Caesars Pizza Bowl. Under that scenario, the Alamo Bowl would pick between MSU and Minnesota, with MSU seen to be the favorite.

That scenario seems most likely. There are six conferences that automatically get BCS invites, and undefeated TCU will qualify for an automatic slot as a high-ranking mid-major. That leaves just three spots open. One goes to the loser of the SEC Championship, leaving two. The options remaining are a second team from the Big Ten, (likely) undefeated Boise State and, maybe if Cincy loses to Pitt, the Bearcats. Given how much the Fiesta Bowl wants Iowa, and how much the Orange Bowl wants Penn State, one of them will get picked.

That much is certain, unless Nebraska upsets Texas in the Big 12 championship. In that case, you've got to like Texas' odds of picking up an at-large spot, leaving a big-time bowl the option of choosing between Iowa, Penn State and Boise State.

Question two is more difficult: Who do you like between MSU and Minnesota? Both teams are 6-6 and Minnesota won the head-to-head matchup. On the other hand, MSU finished stronger and travels MUCH better.

Should the Big Ten only get one team in the BCS, I think George Perles and Lloyd Carr will find a way to talk the Insight Bowl folks into taking the Gophers, possibly by guaranteeing their entire ticket allocation. That way, they could have an in-state team and a possible MSU-Central rematch. Of course, if the Big Ten can't send a team to the Detroit game, there's a good-sized chance that Notre Dame might fall there as an at-large, and ND-Central would actually be a pretty good game.

As it stands, with no more games to be played by State and just one more week to go, the guess here is that MSU winds up in the Valero Alamo Bowl. I'll say that's an 85% chance, with a 10% chance we go Insight and 5% that we fall to Detroit.

Alamo Bowl Official: MSU an Attractive Candidate

Given that present discussion that's dominating among MSU football fans - that being where MSU will be going bowling - I thought we'd talk with someone who could shed some light on that. So I called up the good folks at the Valero Alamo Bowl, whose pick is likely to decide the matter. Should they pick us, we'll go there. If they don't, we're headed to Phoenix.

The Alamo Bowl is preparing to pick between Michigan State and Minnesota, assuming two Big Ten teams make a BCS bowl, Alamo officials confirmed today. Rick Hill, vice president of marketing for the Valero Alamo Bowl, declined in an interview today to say who the favorite was between the two, but said MSU was an attractive candidate.

Key among the factors is the ability to quickly mobilize fans to buy tickets and book their flights. "We’ve learned that within 48 hours of the announcement, if your fan base hasn’t decided, they're probably not going."

Several factors are working in MSU's favor. For one, MSU has a higher average home attendance, though Minnesota sold out every game in the new TCF Bank Stadium. Secondly, MSU has a strong history of traveling well to bowls - both the last two years in Orlando and in 2003 to the Alamo Bowl. Officials in San Antonio haven't forgotten the sea of green that descended on the town then, and that works in our favor now. Lastly, MSU has a massive alumni base in Texas, which could just drive to the game.

Given that MSU and Minnesota are both a disappointing 6-6, and the options from the Big 12 are largely between nearby Texas Tech and Oklahoma, Hill said they're expecting the Big 12 to carry the day in terms of ticket sales. While Alamo Bowl officials want both teams to sell out their allocations, the large base of fans from the Big 12 will allow them tilt further in favor of the team that will give the best game.

Bowl selections based on competitiveness don't hinge on who necessarily beat whom during the regular season - though that does matter. Instead, Hill said, it's who will give you the best game on January 2.

It's a little tougher there - especially given that Minnesota beat MSU in Minneapolis on Halloween. However, the Gophers have fallen precipitously since then and continue to be without their star wide receiver, Adam Decker. MSU, on the other hand, has come to play against two heavily-favored squads the last two years that both featured legit NFL prospects (Boston College, led by Matt Ryan, and Georgia, led by Knowshon Moreno and Matt Stafford).

I asked Hill again who he thought might be there - if he'd put a percentage on MSU's likelihood of being involved. He, quite politically correctly, declined so to do.

It's worth noting that if only one Big Ten team makes the BCS, MSU is all-but certain to miss the Alamo Bowl. Hill said they'd have to add in either Wisconsin or Northwestern to the mix and, while he wouldn't say it, I'd put money down that we won't jump either of those squads.

MSU's Bowl Chances: Two Weeks Out

We'll start this week by outlining the rules. Slight update from the last post: The Champs Sports Bowl picks before the Alamo Bowl this year. Also, if a 6-6 team gets picked before a 7-5 team, the 7-5 team must have an affiliated bowl to land in. With that, let's get to it.

To me, the Big Ten splits into three levels at this point. Iowa has one loss, Ohio State, Penn State and Wisconsin have two. Iowa is @ Ohio State this weekend, and the winner of that will almost certainly go to the Rose Bowl. Realistically, the loser probably isn't going to get picked for the BCS. Penn State closes home to Indiana and @ MSU and if the Nittany Lions win both then they and their massive fan base will have an in at a second BCS bid. Should TCU lose to Utah, but especially if Boise State loses to Idaho, that shot would become almost automatic.

However, for these purposes, I'm assuming that Iowa/OSU gets to the Rose Bowl and that Penn State doesn't get picked as an at large. Three reasons: I think the MSU game may actually go our way. I also think that it would be next to impossible to pass on an undefeated Boise or TCU. Finally, Oregon and Arizona have the inside track on winning the Pac 10 and a two-loss USC would get picked ahead of a two-loss Penn State.

Given that, I've got Penn State in the Capital One Bowl, the loser of Iowa @ OSU (the guess here is Iowa) in the Outback Bowl and Wisconsin in the Champs Sports Bowl.

That leaves the second tier schools: MSU, Minnesota, Northwestern and Michigan. Purdue, Illinois and Indiana can only finish 6-6 at best, and none would get picked ahead of the four second-tier schools.

Minnesota is an almost near-mortal lock to finish 6-6. Their next game is against South Dakota State, a good FCS school, but an FCS school nevertheless. Their final game is @ Iowa. 'Nuff said.

Northwestern and MSU both have a game they'll be favored in followed by a game they'll be picked to lose, though both are winnable or loseable. For NW, it's @ Illinois then home to Wisconsin. For MSU, it's @ Purdue then home to Penn State.

Michigan has by far the toughest road to a bowl, finishing up @ Wisconsin then home to Ohio State.

So who gets in? Well, we'll start by assuming that Minn., NW and MSU all finish up at 6-6. I simply don't think Michigan has another win left in them, and will finish 5-7. Their chance to get bowl eligible died when they let Purdue come back from two touchdowns last weekend.

Minnesota beat both Northwestern and Michigan State, but that doesn't matter at all compared to who will fill up the Alamo Bowl best. Frankly, that's probably Michigan State. Add that to the fact that MSU traveled very well in 2003 to the Alamo Bowl, and you'll see MSU headed to Texas once again.

That leaves Minnesota and Northwestern for the Insight Bowl, and conventional wisdom says Northwestern goes to the Insight Bowl. I wouldn't pick that way, but I think that's the read people much closer to the situation are getting, so I'll defer to their wisdom. That leaves Minnesota with a trip to Detroit and the Little Caesars Bowl.

Should Penn State get picked to go to a BCS bowl, who would go to Detroit? Well, another team would have to qualify, and of the other three schools, Purdue has the easiest road. They finish home to MSU and @ Indiana, and I think it would be easier for Purdue to win both than for Michigan to beat either Wisconsin away or Ohio State at home. Indiana has to win @ Penn State before that Purdue clash, and Indiana has never beaten Penn State, ever. Illinois closes out with winnable home games against Northwestern and Fresno State sandwiching a game they won't win - @ Big East leader Cincinnati.

With two games to play, the pick is MSU to the Alamo Bowl.

MSU's Bowl Chances: Three Weeks Out

Michigan State is sitting at 4-5 with three games to go, the upcoming one being against 17-point-underdog Western Michigan. Following that are games away to Purdue (3-6 overall) and the final at home to #11 Penn State (8-1).

MSU needs to win two games to become bowl eligible and three to guarantee a bowl bid. Assuming that happens, what bowl is MSU likely to make? Well, let's start with the position MSU might have in the pecking order.

The top three, in some order, are almost certainly Iowa, Penn State and Ohio State. Wisconsin, at 6-2, is riding high and will likely claim the fourth spot. That leaves us on the next tier with Minnesota, Northwestern and Michigan, all at 5-4, while MSU and Indiana sit at 4-5. For argument's sake, since Indiana's remaining schedule is @ Wisconsin, @ Penn State and home to Purdue, I'm going to guess that IU won't win two games, thus making them ineligible.

That's eight teams for seven bowl games. Minnesota's remaining schedule (vs. Illinois, vs. South Dakota State, @ Iowa) is favorable, while Michigan and Northwestern are even money to, like MSU, finish 6-6.

So let's allocate the bowl games, for the moment assuming that the Big Ten sends both Iowa and Penn State to BCS bowls. The Capital One and Outback, the other two New Year's bowls select Ohio State and Wisconsin, respectively, while Minnesota goes to the Alamo Bowl. By rule, a 7-5 team must get picked over a 6-6 squad, so the fact that Minnesota is a terrible traveling team won't hurt them in this scenario.

The Champs Sports Bowl gets to choose next, between MSU, Michigan and Northwestern. MSU beat both squads, but that doesn't matter nearly as much as which school will travel best. Michigan does travel better than MSU, however we've done well two years in a row bringing fans to Orlando. Still, Michigan hasn't gone bowling in a year, so there's a little more pent-up demand on their end.

Whoever doesn't get picked is likely the favorite to go to the Insight Bowl in Tempe, Ariz., with Northwestern headed to the Little Caesars Pizza Bowl in Detroit.

Right now, the most likely scenario would see Michigan State head to the Insight Bowl. That prediction assumes we'll win two of the next three games, likely against Western Michigan and @ Purdue.

Granted that it's not the destination we were all hoping for in August, but I could do with a New Year's Eve in Arizona, couldn't you?